Should WVU confound the "low-expectations"?
The short answer in the opinion of this author is yes. However, from the Signal Caller and Phil Steele to the Big XII media (27 voters) WVU is no higher than 5th in Conference expectations. Nary a sniff at the top 25. Most have WVU in the late 30s to almost 50th nationally. So is this season over before it even begins? This author says nay. This admittedly cool-aid drinker sees the low expectations coupled with the best offensive line in the conference boding well. Yet, the answer to the question is really more complex than that as you shall see from the indications and charts below. WVU begins the season with an uphill climb. Because of the preseason hype or more accurately the lack thereof, WVU would need to be seemingly flawless to get a sniff at the playoffs. I think that when you measure up the head to head indications you will find however, that WVU is situated nicely to make a top 15 type of finish. I say all this without snap one having occurred. My position is merely a snapshot of where I see the Eers from the July 20 perspective. Many, many data-points will have been born out by the time the selection committees and bowl committees make their invitations.
In the day of analytics we are inundated with stats, keys to victory, conference-bias, some of those are more telling than others, so how does one sift through it all to find reasonable predictors? I have been working on this answer for several years. I will give you my best "guess" as to what you need to analyse to evaluate a team's potential success.
(process for making of the sausage)
[I defy you to find more transparency anywhere in college football.]
My approach utilizes both typical and atypical evaluations for a teams success. A team would be given a grade of 1-5 on each of the criteria, the same would be multiplied by that criteria's indicator score. The sum of the all of those indicators would give you the baseline for each team. Below I will give you how I weigh each of these evaluating criteria. The scale is from (1-10) 1 being unimportant to 10 being absolutely necessary for success. I will conceded that any matrices are inherently skewed by the evaluator's own bias. But this is how I would do it:
Head to head success indicators (IE determining whether a team is likely to beat another team in season)
- Head Coach.......8
- Coordinators.......7
- Jimmys and Joes (athletes).......9
- Jimmys and Joes (development/experience).......10
- Offensive lines.......6
- Defensive lines.......6
- Explosive plays.......4
- Total team defense.......5
- Total Team offense.......6
- Time of possession.......2
- Number of offensive plays per game.......5
- Number of defensive plays per game.......6
- Total yards......3
- Turnover Margin.......5
- Scoring after scored upon.......7
- Scheme.......4
- Personnel match-ups.......6
- In game adjustments (admittedly hard to evaluate).......8
- Half time adjustments .......7
- Home-field-advantage.......3
Like the above a [1-5 assessment]
- Conference affiliation bias........6
- Preseason hype/bias.......6
- Historical success bias (blue bloods: Alabama, USC, Oklahoma, etc...........5
- Recent historical success bias (Baylor, Oregon, Houston, Boise, etc.).........4
- Scheduling.......5
- Injury bug........8
- School/team-centric drama (ie: Baylor; Missouri;Ole Miss).........3
- Historical trends head-to-head..........4
- Stability in coaching (from head coach to assistants)......3
Head Coach WVU 3*8=24 Alabama 5*8=40
Coordinators WVU 4*7=28 Alabama 4*7=28
Jimmys and Joes Ath. WVU 3*9=2 Alabama 5*9=45
Jimmys and Joes D/E WVU 4*10=40 Alabama 4*10=40
O-Line WVU 5*6=30 Alabama 4*6=24
D-Line WVU 3*6=18 Alabama 5*6=30
Explosive plays WVU 3*4=12 Alabama 3*4=12
TTD WVU 2*5=10 Alabama 5*5=25
TTO WVU 5*6=30 Alabama 3*6=18
Time of Possession WVU 2*2=4 Alabama 5*2=10
Total O Plays WVU 4*5=20 Alabama 3*5=15
Total D Plays WVU 2*6= 12 Alabama 5*6=30
Total Yards WVU5*3=15 Alabama 3*3=9
Turn Over Margin WVU 3*5=15 Alabama 4*5=20
Scoring after scored upon WVU 4*7=28 Alabama 3*7=21
Scheme WVU 4*4=16 Alabama 3*4=12
Personnel match-ups WVU 3*6=18 Alabama 4*6=24
In Game Adjustments WVU 2*8=16 Alabama 3*8=24
Half time Adjustments WVU 3*7=21 Alabama 3*7=21
Home Field Advantage WVU 3*3=9 Alabama 5*3=15
Raw Rating Score (Sum/Number of indicators) WVU 20.85 Alabama 23.15
From the above data you can ascertain that in this snapshot WVU would likely lose to Alabama in a head to head match-up. It would be closer than most pundits and "experts" would have us believe, but when all is said and done the Jimmys and Joes would likely be the deciding factor in such a game. Obviously, this game is merely a hypothetical sketch to illustrate my predictor and poll data-points.
Conference affiliation bias WVU (3*6) 18 Alabama (5*6) 30
Preseason hype/bias WVU (3*6) 18 Alabama (5*6) 30
Historical success bias (blue bloods: Alabama, USC, Oklahoma, etc) WVU (2*5) 10 Alabama (5*5) 25
Recent historical success bias (Baylor, Oregon, Houston, Boise, etc.) WVU (1*4) 4 Alabama (5*4) 20
Scheduling (Tougher schedule receives lower number) WVU (3*5) 15 Alabama (1*5) 5
Injury bug (likelihood that "key injury impacts season [high =1] WVU (1*8) 8 Alabama (5*8) 40
School/team-centric drama (ie: Baylor; Missouri;Ole Miss) WVU (5*3) 15 Alabama (5*3) 15
Historical trends Conference Championships WVU (1*4) 4 Alabama (5*4) 20
Stability in coaching (from head coach to assistants) WVU (5*3) 15 Alabama (5*3) 15
Raw Rating Score (Sum/Number of indicators)WVU 11.89 Alabama 22.22
The point to my efforts above is this:
A team such as Alabama has far greater opportunity to reach the playoffs than WVU. I am in no way saying that Alabama hasn't earned its reputation, I merely saying that the past and recent past success of Alabama places itself in a position of opportunity that only a few other schools may boast. My guess is that if I gamed out the rest of the teams in college football using the above mentioned criteria that you would find WVU exactly where they are falling in the preseason media predictions.
As I indicated above this blog will not do a preseason top 25. I don't do that because on some level I don't wish to contribute to what is inherently wrong with the college football system. I believe that it is proper to engage in that discussion once some actual 2016 data-points have been accumulated. But when I do put a poll together it will be comprehensive and shall utilize the above "indicators" as its basis. It is my desire to insulate myself of the momentum generated by preseason bias, but alas I am human and thus shall succumb to some of its pressure. I look forward to the debate, I look forward to the excitement, bottom line I look forward to this season.
I can't wait to hear from you,
WVLawGeek
